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Comment by Damorian | Hacker News Reader

I expect I'll see new battery powered aircraft before I see today's aircraft powered by kerosene synthesized from water and carbon dioxide in the air. And we'll probably see more rail/car before then since the massive cost increase on airline tickets from this will destroy the industry.

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As the other reply pointed out, without a huge(like 5x) improvement in energy density (specific energy, actually) of batteries, this is physically impossible. Even with improvements, it would still be inefficient as batteries don't lose mass as they are used up - airliners can't even land with full fuel, they have to use it up, or dump it in an emergency situation.

Using a process like this would essentially make the fuel simply a much better battery for airplanes than our batteries today.

There is a good chance we will make jet fuel in the next 2-3 years. There appears to be a lot of demand for it. We're starting with gasoline because it's a much bigger market / impact, but it's not that hard to make jet fuel too.

And if synthesizing jet fuel turns out to be viable, I could easily see governments 10–20 years from now requiring airlines to use it, the way they are for automobiles.

Battery powered aircrafts would require huge jumps in electrical storage. There are no signs of them becoming a reality any time soon. Not to mention the complete replacement of old planes is going to be very very slow.

I don't understand your rail/car replacing flying argument. There are no signs that flying is going to get so expensive that people would rather pay for it with so much of their time.

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