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This articles says that Google is "selling Android..." - does this imply there's direct profit for Google from each one of these activations?

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Yes. If I understand that correctly, if a user activates a phone with Google that means manufacturer opted into the paid Google Experience package.

Not really. In fact there are lots of non-"Google experience" phones. Pretty much any phone with an OEM launcher and app package (i.e. HTC Sense) is not a "Google experience" phone.

There are many devices, though, that don't use Google's activation but which use Android. It's pretty hard to estimate how many.

At the 200,000 mark Schmidt clearly stated that they were undercounting because they only counted some Androids, the ones that come with the Google store basically.

But since those are the ones being advertised by big brands and sold through networks I'd guess the undercount isn't that much.

Don't the HTC Sense phones still come with access to the official Google Market and with the official Google apps (mail, maps etc.) pre installed. If so then they are official Google blessed phones which activate via Google activation

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