> Two days later, a team member with experience in finance saw that the hryvnia was strengthening amid events he’d thought would surely weaken it. He informed his teammates that this was exactly the opposite of what he’d expected, and that they should take it as a sign of something wrong in his understanding.

This is an experience every young trader ever has had many, many times. Myself included. You see an economic figure, you think "hey this should do x", and it doesn't do what you think. The senior trader on the desk will remind you that your wrongness is worthy of further thought.

Keep in mind that prices are themselves predictions. You are predicting what people will predict.

If you're wondering why the talking heads get things wrong, it's mainly because they are talking heads. They're paid to say something interesting, not to make money betting on it. That includes the banks' own analysts! They don't have money on the line, they are sales people at core. I've personally had conversations where the same guy will tell me to buy AND sell the same thing (USDJPY in that case). As long as I do it with him.

But mainly the guys making pronouncements on TV are there to get themselves another slot on TV.