Mobile data traffic in '11 will roughly be same as total Internet traffic in '02

paul.kedrosky.com

23 pointscwan3 comments

Link to the Cisco document that serves as the basis for this claim:

Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2009-2014

http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/...

edit:

One of the more interesting predictions:

"Picoprojectors are a nascent feature addition to smartphones. Although very small in number, this category promises to create higher multiples of traffic due to the high bandwidth required to project images and videos from an advanced mobile device."

I'm not so sure, though. Will picoprojectors really change consumption habits that dramatically?

It only takes a few calculations to realize that picoprojectors are unlikely to become a "big thing", simply based on power requirements. The only possible exception would be projection directly into the human eye. Even very powerful projectors are difficult to be seen in anything other than the lowest light conditions.

I'm curious to see, if when bandwidth for mobile catches up to something that is comparable to that of desktops/laptops today, we will see a move away from apps and to web apps just as we are seeing on desktops.

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