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Comment by m0zg | Hacker News Reader

Why is it so "amazing"? They're between a rock and a hard place. Their economy is guaranteed to collapse if the US keeps erecting trade barriers. The US is much less dependent on them than they are on the US. It will hurt here (with a nice side-effect of import diversification), but it will be totally unbearable over there. They know this perfectly well. The US has a tremendous leverage in this negotiation. China's main sticking point is they want to remove this leverage and make the deal unenforceable. Yeah, that might have worked with Obama (who was, IMO, too eager to please), but the current administration knows better than to sign something like that.

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The article really explains it well.

It is USA, a foreign power, dictating detailed law in China; that digs deep.

The US is right to try to seek some reasonable guarantees that the terms of the deal will be adhered to

Um, yeah, trade deals tend to "dictate law" in other countries. TPP would have done a lot of that. What's so bad about not forcing industrial espionage on US companies if they want to operate in China? No one is forcing China at gunpoint to take the deal. If they have another market they can sell to, they should consider doing that.

"No one is forcing them at gunpoint to take the deal."

The Trump administration did choose the "nuclear option" just one day later.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-16/trump-s-h...

I think the above bloomberg article explains just how extreme an action it is; and also sprinkle it with comments from american politicians which seem to reveal that this is about more than "reasonable guarantees".

US is the aggrieved party. It has full right to make sure that the wrongs do not continue.

Less than 3.5% of China's GDP is trade with USA.

China can stop trade with USA nearly completely, and not even notice it really

Few years ago, the biggest US export to China was plastic and paper (garbage)

Now, it changed to agriculture products, airplanes and cars (German American cars...)

I think it's more like 4.5%, something like 530 billion on the GDP of 12 trillion. And no, they can't stop exporting to the US. The entirety of their economy depends on continued growth, and if, unwisely, they chose to stop exports to the US, China would be deeply fucked for the next decade or more.

>> Few years ago, the biggest US export to China was plastic and paper (garbage)

From https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peo...:

"The top import categories (2-digit HS) in 2018 were: electrical machinery ($152 billion), machinery ($117 billion), furniture and bedding ($35 billion), toys and sports equipment ($27 billion), and plastics ($19 billion)"

==They know this perfectly well. The US has a tremendous leverage in this negotiation.==

You are leaving out how Donald Trump wants to be re-elected in 18 months and Xi has no such pressures.

==China's main sticking point is they want to remove this leverage and make the deal unenforceable. Yeah, that might have worked with Obama (who was, IMO, too eager to please), but the current administration knows better than to sign something like that.==

Like that "deal" we signed with North Korea? I think you are giving the administration a little too much credit as they have engaged the same types of tactics with our allies (Canada, Mexico and the EU) who are not in the same position as China.

Which "deal" have we "signed" with North Korea? As far as I'm aware that negotiation is very far from over, although positive movement is evident (for which South Korean government gives credit directly to Trump: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-southkorea-tru...). There haven't been any nuclear weapons tests either. Do you think the Koreas can be reunited in a year after being separate for 50? Nobody has ever gotten anywhere near as far as Trump in all of this. Give credit where credit is due.

==Which "deal" have we "signed" with North Korea? As far as I'm aware that negotiation is very far from over,==

We haven't signed a deal, that was something Trump promised at the second summit, but never delivered. Meanwhile, after the first summit on June 13, 2018, Trump said, “There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea.” [1] Was that ever true?

==although positive movement is evident==

Just last week, "North Korea fires two rounds of missiles, 2nd launch in a week, South Korea says" [2].

==Give credit where credit is due.==

What has North Korea signed or taken concrete actions on?

[1] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-trumps-premature-victo...

[2] https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/north-korea-fires-unident...

He didn't like the deal. He walked away. That's how you negotiate.

>> North Korea fires two rounds of missiles

So they're getting ready to negotiate again then. That's good. Still: no nuclear testing.

==He walked away. That's how you negotiate.==

You negotiate by giving them what they want (ending war game activities with South Korea [1]) and receiving nothing concrete in return? Seems like a questionable tactic?

Also, just to clarify, did you support the Iran agreement?

==So they're getting ready to negotiate again then. That's good.==

Are you honestly arguing that North Korea launching missiles is a good sign?

== Still: no nuclear testing==

Not according to satellite images.

"The satellite images suggest that the North has been engaged in a great deception: It has offered to dismantle a major launching site — a step it began, then halted — while continuing to make improvements at more than a dozen others that would bolster launches of conventional and nuclear warheads.

But American intelligence officials say that the North’s production of nuclear material, of new nuclear weapons and of missiles that can be placed on mobile launchers and hidden in mountains at the secret bases has continued.

And the sanctions are collapsing, in part because North Korea has leveraged its new, softer-sounding relationship with Washington, and its stated commitment to eventual denuclearization, to resume trade with Russia and China."[2]

[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-47431309

[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/12/us/politics/north-korea-m...

You obviously haven't read the article of this thread and do not know about the so-called Unequal Treaties China was subjected to in the 19th and early 20th century...

Because the U.S. doesn't have a similar history with the British Empire?

No... That isn't even remotely similar. That's also completely irrelevant here.

Are people really that clueless about history? Or is it just bad faith?

Please point out the provisions of the Treaty of Nanking [0] that are materially worse than terms the U.S. colonies were subject to [1]?

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Nanking [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonial_history_of_the_United...

China had it so easy under that treaty. If the US colonies had been given terms like that we'd probably still be British subjects.

How is this relevant?

US colonies were a product of the British Empire, populated by British subjects.

China was an independent country with people who were not British subjects.

Like China, the U.S. has a history of being victims of "unequal treaties" imposed by the British Empire. In fact, the Treaty of Nanking had a provision to ban Americans from the opium trade, which China helped the British to enforce.

Absolutely. This is obvious but...

I'd say neither. Americans just want to put America first.

It's not bad faith to want that. If that means something that looks like Unequal Treaties, so what? Americans have no reason to care. China can be bitter about that forever, or forget it, or decide that Unequal Treaties are awesome. It really doesn't matter to the USA.

It is clear that the Chinese want to put China first. That is their right, and is to be expected. Americans putting America first is no different.

Please don't post name-calling or flamewar comments to HN. If other people are ignorant, and you know more, the thing to do is to teach them, so we can all learn something. Lashing out with labels only makes this place worse, as well as making your own position seem weaker.

I completely understand how frustrating these discussions can be and how posting a reply like that gives a certain temporary relief, but it's not worth the damage it causes.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

You seem to also be skirting over the latter 20th and 21st centuries where China has been stealing ip and violating human rights.

==violating human rights==

Kind of hard to take this stance when we are palling around with Saudi Arabia and Israel and potentially committing our own abuses at the southern border (and definitely droning civilians in other countries).

...yeah those places need work too. Idk what abuses we have at the southern border. People illegally cross and they are detained. This is very typical border policy.

Taking children who are apprehended with their parents and then separating them for detention isn’t typical and hasn’t been done by other administrations.

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