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Comment by JumpCrisscross | Hacker News Reader

> While Britain doesn't necessarily have a large amount of leverage

Sure it does. It could probably get a small coalition of American and possible European forces to facilitate an evacuation of the city for anyone who wants to leave, to Hong Kong, the U.K. or the United States. There is a lot of human capital in Hong Kong, capital that relies on competent government, fair courts and a government with a legitimate mandate.

This isn’t happening because domestic populations in the West aren’t wholly tuned into Hong Kong’s situation.

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> a small coalition of American and possible European forces to facilitate an evacuation

I've seen documents circulated by the US military where they basically said 'we aren't sure we'd win against 2018 China'.

That sort of activity is a pretty clear attack on China's sovereignty, and I suspect the CCP would agree regardless of other possible interpretations.

The UK could break diplomatic ties and stop trading with China, but they can't do anything involving 'forces'. It is a tragic step for Hong Kong, but end of the day it is Chinese territory and they will get their way on anything they insist on.

> I've seen documents circulated by the US military where they basically said 'we aren't sure we'd win against 2018 China'

This isn’t helpful without a source. China’s army is formidable. Its Navy, however, is relatively weak.

In any case, this would (intentionally) never become a military conflict. The stakes are too low for both sides. If it came to a fight, the most would be sanctions against CPC leadership under the Magnitsky Act.

> This isn’t helpful without a source.

US Military, either Army or Navy. I don't remember exactly what was written on the cover. The context may have been an invasion of the mainland.

Anyway, if they want to wait a couple of years and do all this again that will probably be an academic detail. They are almost certainly improving their navy so they can be more pushy in the South China Sea.

> The stakes are too low for both sides.

A foreign power swooping in and offering support to dissidents? When one of China's biggest strategic goals is enforcing unity among 1.4 billion people? China could very easily see the situation differently.

It would be similar to Russia organising a uniformed 'humanitarian convoy' with China and Iran, then trundled over to America to offer material support to separatist Texans or Californians. If there was a belief it might actually make a difference that action would provoke quite a response.

Although I doubt the UK or US are about to go to war with China, both have and do engage in 'sabre rattling' involving actual forces - eg deliberately sending aircraft carriers through disputed areas of the South China Sea.

The UK has its own political turmoil it's dealing with. That said, it would be comical to see Boris Johnson trying to sell a no-deal Brexit AND a plan to bring in thousands of political refugees to Parliament.

> UK has its own political turmoil it's dealing with

To be clear, I don’t think anyone will intervene. But to say nobody has any leverage is wrong. There is leverage, it simply isn’t being deployed because Hong Kong isn’t a priority.

The US and UK both have extradition treaties with HK (partly why Snowden fled to Russia), so they wouldn't have any standing if they tried to insist that China shouldn't have one.

China has none is part of the arrangement since long time ago. Not many place with proper rule of law has extradition arrangement with china. Only case by case.

I definitely understand why HK SAR would have issues with an extradition treaty, I was just giving a reason in my above comment as to why the US or UK wouldn't intervene in this scenario.

I’m not sure why you’re downvoted. There’s immense financial and human capital in HK (due to low taxes and access to APAC), both relatively mobile. Europe absorbed millions of poor and unskilled Syrians. Half a million knowledge and highly skilled service workers from HK would be possible, even desirable for many countries.

This issue has been resolved over 30 years ago. The answer is no.

I was born in British Hong Kong. I had a British passport, one that is in a special category (BNO) that was issued to non-citizen. It does not allow residency in UK, or even guarantees the passport holder can enter UK at all. The issue of former colony subject coming to UK has been debated and settled. The answer is no.

They have bigger problems now, like Brexit.

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