Huh. I think I've run into the same 20-30% figures a lot and just sort of filed them as Internet fact in the back of my head. It's heartwarming to know that actual studies put the number around 0,5-3%

It doesn't take much thought to figure out why the 20-30% numbers are trumpeted loud and wide: The implications are nasty and visceral and when there's a number like that you feel like there's a point behind it, so you start to wonder. Of course, it's the same as with any fear peddler; if you get an emotional response to a news that seems to touch your life, you can be pretty sure you're being sold snake oil for someone else's benefit.

Why not take the message of this research in a positive manner: Of those who suspect false paternity, less than a third are correct.