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Comment by agumonkey | Hacker News Reader

China is still a bit of a bet. Is anyone sure their growth will be built on solid foundations ? If so then yeah, they'll probably be the next pole.

Although, in a way, I'm not sure poles will be a good description. Manufacturing will decrease in China, while other countries are trying to relocalize. It might be a flatter network of ~peers in the future.

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>China is still a bit of a bet. Is anyone sure their growth will be built on solid foundations?

Is anyone sure the kind of foundations the west considers "solid" are the only solid ones?

Good point

The idea that corrupt dictatorships don't work out in the long run is not based on the average American's favorite flavor of ice cream, it's based on the vast majority of countries in history.

Recent history. The idea was proven out by the Romans and Egyptians on 1-2 magnitude larger times scales than which western society has existed.

The average dictator was terrible for Rome, and the successful dictators achieved their success through the conquest of local countries. Rome's economy was basically an engine that ran on slaves and resources brought back from conquest. The majority of Rome's rulers weren't very good at conquest. It may be a little excessive to suggest that Xi will double the size of China through war in the next few decades.

That's basically what US is right now. The slaves have been replaced by third world countries that US exploits. There are endless wars that are driven by politics and the military/industrial complex. And the country is run by a corrupt oligarchy.

>The idea that corrupt dictatorships don't work out in the long run is not based on the average American's favorite flavor of ice cream, it's based on the vast majority of countries in history.

What "vast majority of countries"? There were empires that lasted millennia far more corrupt or dictatorship like than modern China.

And those "corrupt dictatorships" that didn't last were more like Latin America "Banana Republics" or African rogue warlord dictatorships in backwards places, than a huge sophisticated state with a top-tier economy, an ancient culture, and its own way of doing things for millennia...

I think China has a pretty solid foundation in my opinion. While the socially authoritarian nature of the Chinese government is obviously abhorrent, the centralized planning approach has shown itself to be very effective when it comes to managing the economy and the industry. For example this [1] documentary on Shenzhen talks about how it grew from a fishing village into a major tech hub in a few decades. There are lots of other examples of China doing these kinds large scale modernization and industrialization projects. China has clearly demonstrated its ability to execute long term plans over the past few decades.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGJ5cZnoodY

Also, a lot of it depends on how much of it's culture China is able to export. I could see certain places accept the Chinese language, ideologies, arts etc. in exchange for greater trade/economic benefits. How openly and rapidly the world accepts/imports Chinese culture(and not just it's money) will determine if it has a legitimate hegemonic future.

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