no, 1 in 2 chance. unless you suppose they can go to facebook after going to facebook.
(email, Facebook, porn)
(email, porn, Facebook)
(porn, email, Facebook)
(Facebook, email, porn)
(Facebook, porn, email)
(porn, Facebook, email)
That is 3! or 6 total possibilities, 2 of which involved porn immediately following Facebook. which is 1 in 3... ...How do you figure 1 in 2?
Edit: On another note, in his place I would have sanitized my own history; a screenshot showing redtube and tube8 in the "visited" style is tacky, to say the least.
Suuuure :)