Outlier Scenarios: 7% U.S.GDP Growth in 2011?

I'm getting tired of constantly hearing unrealisticly good predictions from GS and other institutions with vested interests. (And yes, I know that this is the _outlier_ scenario)

This reminds me of the earlier article today from Zed Shaw. Why is GS so optimistic, constantly overestimating growth? Because they know that with their reports they can influence growth (aka, self-fulfilled profecy, so common in economics). And with more growth, they have more deals (IPOs, M&Ms, etc), and thus more money.

While the economics of this are interesting - it will be depressing to see republicans claim the turn around was due to the actions they've taken since the mid term elections, and the democrats claiming it's proof what they were pushing has led to a recovery and ... I should really listen to less talk-radio.

Shorter Kedrosky: "Goldman Sachs says that if lots of Americans start buying lots and lots of stuff -- which might or might not happen -- then the GDP will go way up."

No attempt to identify a reasonable set of underlying factors beyond private deleveraging or to consider countervailing factors. E.g., the widely predicted 10 - 20% continued fall in housing prices as larege numbers of delayed foreclosures kick in this coming year, with subsequent loss of consumer confidence.