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> even a smallish one like Iran say, would quickly be producing the vast majority of all genius-level intellects.

Wait, by this logic China and India should be currently producing the majority of genius-level intellects. Are there really 5 times more geniuses in China than in the US? If not it means education and infrastructure plays a part.

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Even if they were doing that now, won't it be around 20 years before it started having a large impact?

The population ratio were already the same. Assuming the average human IQ is the same, that would mean for the topmost 10 000 brilliant American geniuses, you would have about 50 000 Chinese geniuses of the same caliber. Or that there are as many people in China that are in the top IQ percentile as there are people in the US that are in the 5th percentile.

I have no idea if this is true or if it has a sensible impact.

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