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Hypothesis:

1. Advances in fundamental science are what ultimately dictate the growth rate of an economy. For example when you discover quantum mechanics you can make lasers, circuit boards and therefore computers which boosts everything enormously.

2. The more science you have done the harder it is to do more. You can only discover a truth once. For example discovering new elements is extremely hard now compared to when Hennig Brand discovered phospherous in his urine.

Consequences:

1. When a society gets the scientific method right it goes through an S shape curve (logistic curve), where science accelerates for a while and then plateuas out.

2. When you hit the plateau of the curve the maximum growth rate of the economy becomes very limited, it's just not possible to have new ideas which are worth developing very fast.

3. Human labour still provides a surplus so what you get is more and more resources piling up with nowhere to invest them. Look at Apple's $245bn cash pile, if they had new ideas they would put that money to use.

This will cause bond yields to fall to almost nothing and loads of money to be pumped into any startup with a vague hope of accomplishing something.

If we are in this situation it would also mean that the 08 crisis is not needed to explain the slowing growth in the world, things are slowing because we don't have many new ideas.

Common objections:

1. But what about X invention that happened in the last few years? Invention still happens on the plateau, just slower, NN's, crispr, exoplanets, smartphones are cool, they're not relativity, quantum mechanics, electrification, aeroplanes etc.

2. Scientific progress is exponential! : Accurately fitting a curve to a logistic curve gives you an exponential up until it shifts on you and starts slowing.

3. China and India are still growing strong. : Essentially they are still deploying the previous discoveries. China's growth is slowing over time precisely as it has less and less discoveries to deploy.