The bottom line is no more political advancement that might causes dissidents inside the mainland. That's just no political reform in HK. And there should not be large scale violence. Everything else, up to the local government.
HK won't be a role model for Taiwan. Despite numerous people using that for HK to be treated as somewhat more precious than it has been. My simple read is that everyone in China know Taiwan is different than HK, no one in China believe Taiwan will go through HK's struggle. For one thing, Taiwan has a real substantial economy that is complimenting to the mai land and is much larger in size and diversity, and HK does not.