If "good choices are likely to lift you out of poverty" like OP claims, it logically follows that "you are unlikely to be poor if you make good choices".

"There will be cases where it doesn't work" let's say that means 99%/1%. So the statements become "you would have 99% chance to be lifted out of poverty if you made good choices" and therefore "you have 1% chance of being poor if you make good choices". Whether you believe it's 1% or 0% the behavior will be the same. If a smoker gets lung cancer you will blame their smoking everytime even though there was a 5.8% chance that it was not smoking caused so 0% and 5.8% is not any different, why should 0% and 1% be?.