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What is your source for the 1 in 500? The numbers I found on the same website indicate an even smaller risk https://www.catie.ca/en/pif/summer-2012/putting-number-it-ri... However, "As you can imagine, accurately tracking the number of times a person is exposed to HIV is very difficult".

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I don't recall; the numbers on Catie (~1 in 1250) are more modern and certainly a better estimate.

Either way, you only have to add a few more digits of risk mitigation and you're more likely to die in a car accident. A test that had even a 1% false negative rate would cover most of that ground.

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