This is so wrong since it implies that a decision is binary, thus taking the opposite decision of a "wrong decision" is well defined and automatically right.
Which is hilariously different to reality.
Which is hilariously different to reality.
Will I win the lottery? Yes/No. 50/50?
My favorite conflation is the "are we in a simulation?" argument. That's a yes/no also, and the ignorant conclusion is that its very likely we are. Without any statistics on the probability either way.
But the conditions omit the all-important consequence. "What are your priors?" Suppose 99% of choices have hardly any consequence, and Bob is wrong on 95%. But Bob is right on the most expensive places to fail. Then, choosing the opposite could be disastrous, even though you get 95% of the choices right.
Each assignment required a yes-no decision.