One pretty solid indicator of recessions to the year or two is the inverted yield curve on short and long term yields. From the FRED: 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (T10Y2Y) [1].

Once it dips and inverts, recession seems fairly consistent. Nothing is ever guaranteed but it is better reliability than most financial media, though the possible inverted yield curve is getting attention [2].

Machines and A.I. run it mostly now though, so game theory is now in their/algorithms hands. We are mere spectators in the speculative simulation. They are definitely watching for an inverted yield curve.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=lFt2

[2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-05/yield-cur...