Well, generally speaking, this is exactly the ballpark CIA feels very much at home at and has tons of experience doing exactly this, for last 70+ years.

On the other hand, Chinese involvement would also make sense, but things are too obviously pointing to their direction for my subjective taste.

Maybe its both - US escalating situation just because that's what 3-letter agencies do, China obviously deeply involved since its a crucial place for them and literally their territory, which is rebelling and questioning Chinese supremacy. At the end, these are all just constant games for these folks.