Comment by onion2k | Hacker News Reader

Comment by onion2k | Hacker News Reader

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There is not even close to a shortage of bananas.

IANABE (I am not a banana expert) but I know that no one suggested there is a shortage right now. What's threatened is the world's supply of Cavendish bananas which is what every Western country imports. Prior to that everyone ate Gros Michel bananas, but practically all plantations growing that particular crop were wiped out in the space of 30 years by Panama Disease. Cavendish was the response - it was Panama Disease resistant, but about 15 years ago the disease started attacking Cavendish crops. The concern is that this means we're a decade or two away from losing Cavendish and we don't have a suitable replacement (because, as people have said in this thread, other bananas aren't as tasty to Western palettes).

To post "Nah, there's no problem" shows you don't quite understand that problem, and to cite that you've seen a few big banana plantations as evidence that the problem isn't a real one just compounds the issue.

If Panama Disease mutates to attack the plantations you saw they could all be gone in a decade. That's how virulent the disease is. It is a problem.

> What's threatened is the world's supply of Cavendish bananas which is what every Western country imports.

Actually, quite a few Western countries export them. And quite a few Western countries import (or domestically grow and consume) other varieties, though typically in smaller quantities.

> we don't have a suitable replacement

That is your opinion. I've been lucky enough to taste plenty of other banana strains and there are definitely better banana's than Cavendish. The smaller ones that you generally get in this region, that are really ugly on the outside, taste so much better.

> you've seen a few big banana plantations

More than 'a few'... literally 3 whole countries worth. There is absolutely no shortage of trees and farms. Just to give you an idea of how much I've seen and I didn't even tag all of it... https://imgur.com/a/olSoTXe

I'm not saying that this disease isn't a problem, but I have hard time believing it is a catastrophic problem for all bananas.

If you're going to go into big problems, I'd say that African Swine flu is a much larger issue for this region. I drove through countless 'checkpoints' all over northern VN/Laos where they sprayed down my motorbike wheels with some unknown chemicals. There are literally signs everywhere talking about the issue. Millions of swine have been slaughtered. Usually you see pigs running around freely on the roads, but once you get to a certain point in northern vn, you stop seeing them entirely.

That is your opinion.

It's not my opinion. It's the opinion of every banana industry analyst who says losing the Cavendish would be the end of the banana export industry, which is pretty much all of them. There's a reason why we get articles catastrophising about the impact of Panama Disease posted to HN on a semi-regular basis.

> It's the opinion of every banana industry analyst who says losing the Cavendish would be the end of the banana export industry, which is pretty much all of them.

What a great title for a business card. Of course they have every motivation to say that the sky is falling. It attracts attention, doesn't it?

> There's a reason why we get articles catastrophising about the impact of Panama Disease posted to HN on a semi-regular basis.

I'm sure there is a reason, but it may not be what you think it is.

The original article indicates that most banana strains cannot be mass-marketed:

"Although thousands of banana varieties grow around the world, only a few have the precise characteristics necessary to withstand the rigors of large-scale commercial cultivation, long-distance transport, and international marketing. A banana with those characteristics, a taste and appearance similar to the beloved Cavendish, and resistance to TR4 does not exist."

> I'm not saying that this disease isn't a problem, but I have hard time believing it is a catastrophic problem for all bananas.

It's a catastrophic problem for the existing commercial banana industry, not for “all bananas”.

> the existing commercial banana industry

You mean in the US or elsewhere? The US is only 25% of the total market. While a big number, there are far larger consumers of bananas. 'it is important to note that only 15 percent of banana production is traded in the international market'.

It sounds like people might have to learn to eat another type of banana. It has already happened when the market switched from Gros Michael to Cavendish. Given that there is 1000 varieties of bananas out there, that is a marketing problem, not a catastrophic problem.

http://www.fao.org/economic/est/est-commodities/bananas/bana...

You didn't listen it seems:

There is no commercially exploitable banana for export that we know of yet. Going from Gros Michel to Cavendish required rethinking how we farm, harvest, ship, ripen, sell bananas. Cavendish could simply not be shipped like Gros Michel before.

You said yourself that Cavendish is a "boring" banana. This might be true. But all the great, tasty, small bananas you are talking about cannot be shipped anywhere by the means we know of today. That is, every market outside of the banana growing regions cannot have these, they will be mush, rotten or inedible once they reach the shelves.

Apart from that, I agree, we will (hopefully) eventually find a replacement and adjust our methods and taste. I'm all open for new banana tastes. But the problem is real, the economy as a system (farmers, logistics, consumer) does not know of an alternative so far. Even if you think different.

But I guess you could be very rich if you have an alternative ready and are willing to transport it and selling it in EU/US/Canada.

> But all the great, tasty, small bananas you are talking about cannot be shipped anywhere by the means we know of today

I'm fairly sure I've seen labelled-as-imported dwarf red and apple bananas in California, but certainly the transport properties of most plausible replacements by taste are inferior to Cavendish (and I don't even know if any of them are Panama disease resistant, and if they aren't, they aren't plausible replacements.)

You can get small quantities at meh pricing of other bananas, too. The question is whether there's anything that can be produced and shipped in large quantities at reasonable cost, like the Cavendish.

> You mean in the US or elsewhere?

I mean the existing commercial banana industry dependent on the present scale of output and sales to the developed world.

> The US is only 25% of the total market.

Not talking about just the US.

> it is important to note that only 15 percent of banana production is traded in the international market'.

And, e.g., the domestic production and consumption of East African bananas (a sizable share of the global total production) isn't part of the international commercial trade at issue (and isn't affected by losing the Cavendish since East African bananas are an entirely different set of varieties.)

> It sounds like people might have to learn to eat another type of banana. It has already happened when the market switched from Gros Michael to Cavendish.

Gros Michel and the cultivars Ithe Cavendish subgroup are quite similar in taste and commercial properties (Gros Michel is a bit thicker skinned and more transport hardy than most Cavendish varieties as I understand.) Which is why it's what the industry largely turned to when Gross Michel became nonviable.

Cavendish was the low hanging fruit of alternative bananas. > Given that there is 1000 varieties of bananas out there, that is a marketing problem, not a catastrophic problem.

There's far fewer that are plausible replacements for Cavendish in large scale trade even before considering whether they are Panama disease resistant and other production and transport features. Cooking bananas that would, were they traded alongside existing commercial varieties, compete more with plantains than Cavendish bananas aren't a plausible replacement.

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