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You invest in assets using tools like NPV. CEOs don't have crystal balls. Some might have a gut instinct, but then they are no different than your gambling stock trader... who might be up today and down tomorrow. It's a function of luck, not a function of ability. You have founders like Stuart Butterfield who can claim over 2-3 successes to make products worth billions. I doubt most CEOs could do the same thing.

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You're basically saying good investors don't exist and everything is priced to perfection? This could range from investing in equipment, to expanding in a new business line, to acquiring a competitor and realising synergies that someone else would not have noticed. Putting 1 and 1 together in specific business focus areas might result in 3 for the well trained eye or the smart mind.

Plenty of people are good at investing (understanding how it all ties together, and understanding how they take risk) outside of the public markets. And plenty are horrible (i.e. mom and pop investing in the mutual funds of your bank).

> saying good investors don't exist

I am probably misremembering many key details here, but didn't Bogle make a pretty good case for this?

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