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> Notably forecasted the global Crypto crash of 2k18... an opinion against the grain in his field.

Was his field /r/bitcoin? I'm pretty sure the entire world saw that one coming.

Hindsight is 20/20 and all but - I'm sure most everyone knew it would crash (just like todays stock market) but the speculation was on when.

Even for someone who correctly predicted the when, how can we know if it was luck or skill?

>how can we know if it was luck or skill?

Easy, it's luck.