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Comment by closeparen | Hacker News Reader

Bright high school students are vastly oversupplied compared to seats in elite colleges. Graduation rates are in the high 90s. There are many more than 5,000 kids who can handle the workload; which 5,000 you pick is arbitrary.

Engineering competence is not even slightly oversupplied compared to useful engineering work. Project failures, incompetent people, and systematically incompetent orgs are still very much alive at the most selective tech employers. There are real business needs to hire better engineers.

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Admission at Georgia Tech has spoken on this online. Per their analysis, they can definitely differentiate the top 30% of applicants from the rest and it makes a difference in performance. Within the 30% they have found no differentiator that significantly impacts their academic performance.

So they have a full 30% of their applicants qualified to be there but they have to narrow it to 1%. Whatever method they choose must have the appearance of meritocracy, abide by laws and regulations, be resistant to corruption, achieve goals other than academic performance such as culture, volunteering, and sports, and so on.

I think the same must be true for companies. At some point in the elimination process everyone is technically qualified, so they might as well hire someone "because we like his face". But that's demoralizing and corrupt so they invent some criteria that on its face seems useful, even though it's truly not.

Every person you hire is technically competent? So every system you build on or integrate with is high quality? Every architecture choice you have to live with is a good one? Every bug report you file is investigated well? Every coworker's code is a joy to read, and their reviews of your code and designs are insightful? Every person on your team is capable of the most difficult work in its pipeline? Every system you and your business could think to want is within your engineering team's capabilities to build quickly and operate well?

You have something really special there; hang on to it. People dream of working at a place like that. And have fun taking over the world, because with a team like that, you will.

Maybe I didn't phrase it well. Georgia Tech of course has students who perform poorly and fail so their point wasn't everyone is good enough.

Their point was after getting to the top 30% there's really no signifier of who's going to fail or how much they would succeed. After a certain level of basic qualification it's essentially random to them.

So those people of course will get through the hiring process. The issue is whether you actually have a model to filter them out at hiring. Since a workplace Utopia as you suggested doesn't exist yet, I suppose no one has that model yet. So picking the top 0.01% is essentially randomness because as far as we can tell the top 30% are all the same.

It's actually that you aren't qualified to say who's competent. The CEO can't hire a tech competent CTO and that multiplies down the line. In the absence of a tech savvy judiciousness they fall back on fluff like "devops culture fit" and "growing the team" to be like "silicon valley culture". Hundreds of recruiters will sell them that story (those recruiters are really in the PR industry) and you end up with incompetence all around except everyone has become good at selling their own incompetence as the highest form of tech savvy. Most prevalent in older enterprisey firms.

Even worse, engineering management is desperately in short supply. However the beauty competition nature of the project and vendor selection process is the root cause of failure imho. And that's not fixable in tech, in fact, the problem is so meta (and metastatic) that only the PG recommended "end-run" to provide value to end users can cut through the BS.

Replace high school students with engineering graduates and elite colleges with elite employers in your first para.... And see..

Elite employers are nowhere close to getting all their projects done successfully or with reasonable quality. The subset of engineering graduates who can do that is small.

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