Hacker News Reader

Comment by DebtDeflation | Hacker News Reader

>Uber isn't at taxi company, since it doesn't own or operate taxis. Conceptually it's a platform for connecting independent taxi operators with customers

Uber is a moonshot bet on re-imagining transportation when autonomous vehicles become a reality. If that reality never materializes, Uber either raises prices and sees its growth rate and valuation crash back down to earth or it goes out of business.

View on HN

It’s also a moonshot bet that when autonomous vehicles become a reality, Uber will wind up on top. I don’t know about that at all.

IBM owned everything in sight in computing, amd when PCs cam along, it improbably wound up owning them for a short while too...

Then MS took over. They owned everything in sight, but stumbled when the Internet came around, and then again in mobile. They’ve roared back, but they don’t own everything in sight.

Uber’s valuation doesn’t leave room for stumbles and settling for roaring profitability. It’s a bet that when the inflection point comes, they will own everything and keep owning everything.

It could happen, but it takes more than just autonomous vehicles becoming a reality for their valuation to become real.

There are bets stacked on top of bets. Let’s say that Tesla does deliver a viable self-driver, something presently only seen in sci-fi, like fusion power has been just around the corner for 50 years. Why would they cede the relationship to Uber when they already own the relationship with the end users? They already bypassed conventional dealer networks. Other car makers in this space do own their own dealers. Companies like Hertz own customer relationships and have experience managing fleets. Where does Uber fit into this world? They don’t.

At least nobody said Uber is a "data" company like they used to. Five years of Uber telling me the driver is "5 minutes away" for 20 minutes straight when I request a pickup at LAX tells me they don't even look at their data!

I have no evidence, but I believe the five minute thing is deliberate - to prevent users from cancelling taxis because it will take too long to get there.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com