Just one man's opinion, but as a tivo early adopter whose tivos have been gathering dust for some time now, I think DVR is a transitional technology - something that only makes sense in an environment where bandwidth is poor and rights access is difficult. Apple TV is only really inferior to a platform like boxee in so much as apple chooses to make it so, it wouldn't be hard to duplicate a rights environment like that if they wanted to. I wonder if the ipod would have enjoyed such success if they had never supported anything but fairplay encumbered media.
Which isn't to say that Time Warner makes any more sense. Apple does seem to have a fondness for increasing their vertical integration, what about someone like Infineon? Radio components and TCG style security both are big issues for aapl for the foreseeable future, exclusively designed components there could have as big of an impact as an exclusive cpu.