> If the next recession is large enough, I can believe that premise.
The great recession is so named because it is supposed to be much worse than your average recession - a one-in-a-hundred-years recession. It makes sense considering how the financial system leveraged itself on toxic assets.
The question is, how confident can we be that we won't have two horrific recessions in a row? At face value the concept of a "one in a hundred years" recession seems to imply that this won't happen. But as an individual I wouldn't say I'm particularly confident that the market is sane.
Interest rates are going down to join the rest of the world in negative interest rates, despite the states supposedly being in an expansion. Shiller PE ratios suggest stocks are overpriced similar to pre-recession and pre-depression highs. The latest batch of IPOs seems full of companies that are not profitable and may never be profitable and yet your average investor is now exposed (through e.g. their index funds). A seemingly infinite pool of capital with nowhere to go props up wildly questionable companies like WeWork. Real estate values in top cities have blasted off into outer space as this infinite pool of capital looks for more places to park cash.
Maybe we can add in more ordinary concerns too, like average citizen's debt rising, corporate debt rising, sovereign debt rising, etc
It's quite possible that the next recession will be of the ordinary variety, but it's not impossible we will end up with Great Depression 2.0 at some point. If I were a fiction writer imagining the setup to a next great depression, I imagine it would look similar to the world today.