Comment by wtvanhest | Hacker News Reader

Comment by wtvanhest | Hacker News Reader

If you take Jan 1, 2013 to Dec 31st, 2015, the Brazillian stock market did very, very poorly. That probably explains why it was nearly impossible since most traders are probably long, not short the market. So even taking 1 day positions in stocks, still on average over 3 years will experience signifigant downward price pressure.

That said, the fact that the market is bad, is just randomness and shows one of the major difficulties with relying on investment income to support your life. Sometimes stuff just sucks, for very long periods of time. Meanwhile you must pay your bills.

That doesn't even get in to whether or not these people dramatically underperformed the market. They very likely did, but I also bet some of them outperformed based on luck or skill.

Stock market investing is something everyone should try at somepoint in small doses just to understand how difficult it is. Its probably the hardest way to make money in the world and even the best investors usually have a bad few years which ends their careers.

> Its probably the hardest way to make money in the world

Just no. Certainly it's not easy. But the hardest? I'd say there is a long list of occupations which most people would consider harder on various dimensions.

I think what parent commenter means is that it would be unlikely for almost anyone to make money that way, no matter how smart they are or how much time they put in.

I think they aren’t saying that it’s a hard profession by itself in the way that you are talking about — only that the expected returns are negative for almost anyone.

So in that case it’s not calling day traders smarter or harder working than others. It’s saying that no matter what your level of intelligence or other personal attributes there is likely some other job that would have much higher expected returns.

For person A it might be to be a firefighter, for person B, to be a gymnast, for person C, to be a brain surgeon, for person D to work as a maid. Etc etc.

At least that’s the way that I read it.

Really well put.

I just left a 4am part time delivery job. The constant interruption and sitting then walking then sitting was hurting me more than daily half marathon or power tools injuries + full time car repair work. And it's slightly below minimum wage. So your health is torn, and you're not even able to plan long term because you earn so few. I can quit (it was a planned interim thing) but my colleagues can not. And they have two jobs.

Since that, I consider any job with a desk a god damn luxury. Bonus point: you have your own toilets.

Right, but the point was, day trading isn't a "job" -- a day on the tough job you described would never end with you needing to write a check to your employer.

Isn't it just a matter of discipline to avoid too large losses ?

Even if you can avoid too large losses, you can't avoid the possibility of lots of little losses.

Agreed. If the sample was California-based day traders specializing in SAAS software stocks between 2016 and 2018, would the sub-headline be that 97% of traders made great profits?

agreed. i noticed that as well. however, it says started between 13-15 so theoretically some of those on the tail end could have been in a up market.

not only that but futures can be shorted too so i don't think its unfair to use "are they profitable" as the criteria in a down or sideways market.

i do wish they showed a breakdown of under vs overperformance relative to the bovespa during their trading period.

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