> We know Obama wouldn't have commuted Snowden -- and at any rate the Obama pardon of Manning seemed as much about the human rights issue of a transgender woman in military prison receiving fairly poor treatment -- but even if we assume Snowden would have gotten commuted at 7 years he'd still be in jail.
We don't know that. If Snowden had handled his situation differently from day one, he very well could have been pardoned. It all hinges on the American public's perception of him, which is today largely negative (HN is an outlier). My sense is that Americans would have approved of his actions had he made his case in a court room.
But we're both just speculating about events that didn't happen.
> Ending a claim that starts with "He'd be out of jail by now" with "He'd have a better reputation if like these other two guys he let himself get executed" also makes it a little hard to reconcile.
I made two separate claims. The first is that I think there's a reasonable chance he'd have been pardoned or avoided significant jail time had he not fled.
But the second doesn't depend on the first. Even if he hadn't been pardoned, Snowden would be a more effective symbol of the misuse of state power from an American jail than he is today in Russia. I understand that's quite a sacrifice and, like I said, I don't "blame him" for fleeing. I'm just stating my opinion that he'd have been a more effective advocate had he not fled.
Ghandi, Mandella, King, Suu Kyi all did time. There's a reason Letter from Birmingham Jail is so powerful.