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Comment by alecco | Hacker News Reader

In spite of a mostly balanced budget, the growth of non-current liabilites is accelerating. I wonder if this just is due to an aging population and it's effect in pensions or if there are other factors.

https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-kingdom/2017/

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UK state pensions obey the so-called 'Triple Lock' rule where they increase in payout yearly according to the greatest of: 1. the growth in national average earnings; 2. the growth in retail prices as measured by the Consumer Price Index; 3. 2.5 per cent.

This causes an additional increase in pension costs over time on top of the effect of the country's aging population and is a source of resentment among some young people.

That's got to be offset by the increasing pension age?

Apparently accelerating the changes saved around £215bn (between 2011 and 2026).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49917315

In the short term maybe? A forward shift in age threshold is essentially a one-time reduction to expected future pension expenditures, whereas the triple lock and increasing post-retirement life expectancy are continuous increases.

If you think the raise of pension age is a one-time event, I think you'll be sorely disappointed.

Not sure if this is the cause, but non current liabilities are very sensitive to changes in discount rates used to calculate the present value of future expenditure. The Nuclear Decommissioning provision, for example includes costs projected until 2137. In the last accounts it went up 76bn just from changing the discount rate.

The UK has shifted many expenditures which used to happen up front (say, building a hospital) onto long term contracts with ongoing payments through the Private Finance Initiative. That could well be the cause.

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