Next Housing Recession in 2020, Predicts Zillow | Hacker News Reader

Next Housing Recession in 2020, Predicts Zillow

investopedia.com

34 pointst2312 comments

This article is based on a survey of experts that was conducted in May 2018 [0]. Many of those experts cited monetary policy, and the Fed did indeed raise rates three times over the remainder of 2018. However, the Fed has subsequently cut rates twice. In other words, this is outdated and shouldn't have been submitted.

[0] http://zillow.mediaroom.com/2018-05-22-Experts-Predict-Next-...

I welcome it, as metropolitan home prices are comically out of reach for nearly all income levels.

Peasant. You can't afford 1 million for the average family home? Maybe you shouldn't be alive.

(This is sarcastic)

While I agree, wouldn’t a recession caused by rising interest rates keep housing unaffordable for these same buyers? Since getting a loan would then be more expensive.

Housing prices would likely fall in that scenario. In the early eighties, homes values were cheap, but mortgage rates were expensive.

An owned by Zillow house has been for sale in my neighborhood for 5 months. Meanwhile 5-6 other houses have sold including my neighbors. Myself, my mother-in-law, brother-in-law, and 2 co workers have bought and sold (except me) houses this year with ease. The houses were on the market for less than 30 days with offers at or above asking prices, 2 of them had small bidding “wars”. They had offers at the first open house.

I closed in March and everyone that closed after me has gotten a better rate due to the Fed drop.

Still shocked the owned by Zillow house has not sold.

I am not shocked. Local real estate agents won't show the houses to a client.

Why not? They would still get commission on the sale, right?

Zillow and the classic real estate brokerage don't get along. There is a push to make buying a house an internet shopping cart thing, which the brokers really don't want. Were people to get the information, automate the regulation, and do the 98% common paperwork - folks would watch that 6% disappear.

There are plenty of gotchas that can go wrong in one of the most expensive purchases people make (rarely, at that). Also, most of these brokerages are (somewhat) trying to build their own systems. That MLS insider 'advantage' is being devalued by most folks. Zillow does make it easy to couch surf without having to deal with the contract, contract, sign, sign, agent. Those leads are worth cash.

Zillow is not making a very convincing argument here. Seems like a wild guess at best.

Zillow can't even get my original purchase price within 100% of reality despite it being public record. Also, it estimates my home value almost 40% off identical floorplans on my same street.

If everyone is convinced there's going to be a recession then there isn't going to be a recession.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com