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> The workaround AWS support proposed was to reserve 2x capacity so we wouldn't run into this issue on subsequent deploys.

Thats pretty lame of them to make you pay them more money instead of functioning properly.

That's exactly what we told our TAM, SA and the AWS ES PM cc'd on that thread.

Did they ever give you an explanation as to why it happened?

1. We changed a configuration parameter, which we thought would be a no-op but caused a deploy

2. We ran a fairly large cluster with a large amount of i3.xlarge

3. One AZ in us-west-1 didn't have enough capacity of that SKU . The other AZ did, but this doesn't help if you have a multi-AZ deployment.

4. We switched to EBS-based instances after this

Reach out to your TAM again to talk about CR and RI combinations which can help to mitigate this problem.

Migrating to a different hosting platform than AWS for ES aslo mitigates this problem too, which is more likely in our case.