It's a mindset about for thinking about your own finances. That's it. It's absolutely the wrong tool for thinking about equity grants.

I've always considered illiquid equity lottery tickets. Yes, playing the lottery is stupid because the expected value is so small. At the same time, I am absolutely buying into the company lottery pool, and want to maximize the number of tickets I get. If it pays off, wonderful. It it doesn't, whatever, because I never counted on the money to begin with.