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I was nowhere near anywhere good enough to participate in an IMO officially, but judging by the types of problems they ask I'm not super optimistic. This might come back to bite me, but I'd predict that EC2 won't be around when this is solved.

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I would guess that a computer beats humans on the IMO before a computer beats humans on the IOI/ICPC -- but also think that the latter would have far greater impact.

I'm not sure I'd agree; they both seem like they'd be of similar difficulty to me. Why do you think that IMO would be easier for computers?

Have you seen this paper? https://openreview.net/pdf?id=ByldLrqlx

You can see some of the simpler programs that can already be generated on page 12.

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