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Comment by lisper | Hacker News Reader

> And the author argued, since the 1970, we are reaching the next cycle.

So... when was the last time this supposedly happened? Because I can't think of even a single time in human history where there has been "a radical breakdown of social order... a new society is rebuilt, and all the debts from the previous society is canceled."

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WW2 where most of Europe was destroyed. Contrary to what mainstream media will say is that a large part of it was Germany unable to pay war reparations from WW1 and entering stages of hyper inflation during Weimar Republic. This of course led to a certain party that was really against international bankers. After the resulting chaos we have Pax Americana.

Not a good example, Weimar republic debt wasn't caused by a bubble, it was caused by the punishing burden placed on it by the Allies.

If you look at the actual timeline between 1919 and 1933. The hyperinflation occurred 1921 and 1923. Not surprising since that is in the immediate aftermath of WWI. The actual rise to power of those guys in spiffy uniforms was 1929-1933 and was due to austerity in the face of deflation and banking collapse. Same thing happened in the US under Mellon. Only difference is the Germans picked the guy with the Charlie Chaplin Stash and the US picked a kindly man in a wheelchair.

Which is why WWII and WWI are closely related: had I been writing that comment, I would have said that the revolution in social order and cancellation in debt happened in the period from WWI through to the end of WWII.

In 1910, Europe was an aristocracy, and even the US social order was defined by some enormous winners at the top. WW1 itself dramatically reoriented the power dynamics internationally, which led to dramatic political change everywhere, which setup the conflicts that resulted in WW2.

Sure, but none of this supports the stated thesis that these revolutions happen every 100-300 years and that they are a result of debt bubbles. WWI was not a debt bubble, it was a war. Not the same thing. It was also much less than 100 years before the alleged onset of the current revolutionary cycle in the 1970s.

What's the credit score of the U.S. government? 700s? 600s? 500s? 400s? People won't understand the seriousness of the situation if it isn't boiled down. There needs to be a simple credit score of the US government and people can compare if they're better.

The debt of the United States is in Dollars. So the question isn't what they can repay (they'll just print as much as needed) but what the value of the dollar will be after.

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