Who has the most to lose at peak car? Certainly not Tesla. They'll shift to selling more utility battery storage, or Class 8 semis. In California, lots of solar/battery business to be had in PG&E territory alone for the next decade while PG&E and CA gov flounder about nationalizing that infra (which is a matter of when, not if). What will other light auto automakers make as demand falters? Cutbacks.
Sure, Tesla has large amounts of debt. This is the best macro economic condition to have it in (low interest rates). They just need to keep ahead of the debt service curve (profit + cash flow). And if we're about to enter a contraction/recession, interest rates are not going to be going up (insert most recent fed rate cut here). Will it be easy to refinance that pile of TSLA bonds coming up for maturity? I say yes, but what actually happens is anyone's guess. They could do another equity raise and dilute existing shareholders with some grumbles but everyone would go along for the ride (me included).
Smart folks argue Tesla is an energy company that happens to sell cars. Close. Tesla is a financial engineering act that converts mountains of capital and customer dollars into energy and auto products (Solar City was similarly a financial engineering act, PPAs for customers funded by bond markets before solar got so cheap PPAs no longer made sense).
Usual disclaimer: TSLA investor, vehicle owner.