We're not that far removed from a time when every non-nerd's personal computer was a cess-pit of viruses and "addon search bars". It was very, very bad. It'd be much worse now given how much more sophisticated the malware scene is, and how much more connected devices are (always-on Internet wasn't even the norm in the early days of the every-computer-has-some-trojans-and-bonzai-buddy era)
I don't know. And that part scares me.
The future is probably 10,000x as many total computing devices, most of which will be fairly locked down and not as hobbyist-programmer friendly as we've been used to but much better & safer for most folks—but also 100x as many tinkering-friendly computers, and much cheaper than they were "back in the day", and 1,000x the encouragement and free or cheap resources to learn to program as we had. My concern level that current trends will make programming anything other than more accessible, generally, to kids than it was back in the good ol' days, approaches zero. Even if the percentage of computing devices that are tinkering-friendly drops.
Apple really needed a comparability method similar to how windows allowed you to simulate old environments. not always successfully but at least it was a chance
That notarization fee / process, I have not read beyond this story, does look to be a burden beyond what should be reasonable.
Until then, I'm completely in favor of putting all kinds of hurdles between uninformed users and executing random executables downloaded from the internet.
[1]: https://developer.apple.com/documentation/security/notarizin...
That said, if it required something like a "qualified electronic seal" I think the cost would be substantially more (600 EUR a year?), and Apple might turn around and start charging a notarization fee to recoup their infrastructural costs.