From what I've seen the kinect is very popular with casual gamers and non-traditional gamers, typically adults.
What do you mean by "teen hipsters"?
But, so far, the games for Kinect look dull. I'm waiting for the equivalent of Resident Evil 4 on the Wii, which is one of the most enjoyable gaming experiences I've had in ages. Sports and fitness and dance games are fun, and I have bought some of those kinds of games on the Wii, but I don't really feel they justify adding more junk to my house. Hell, if they'd come out with another credible RE title, or some other really high quality shooter, I'd buy it. But, the Wii hardware just isn't up to spec for modern games.
So, yeah, I agree with you. I don't think Kinect is hard core gamers, just like hard core gamers didn't necessarily buy Wii.