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Interesting points - I'm skeptical about whether DBMSs will ever be too complex for DB admins. Complexity will increase, but our level of abstraction will increase to match, as with any technology. We may still find ourselves fixing DBMS problems in 50 years, but those problems will likely be on the same level of abstraction we have at that time.

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> Complexity will increase, but our level of abstraction will increase to match, as with any technology.

But this is no panacea. The complexity will still be there, and ops folks will have to deal with it through extra layers of indirection and obscurity (which are other ways to spell "abstraction").

That might be the best compromise, but it is still a compromise.

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