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Comment by eloff | Hacker News Reader

No, I'm still right. It is true some places will have more rise, but also some places will have lower rise. Also storms are not getting noticeably stronger either, that's just as slow. Really you can buy ocean front property, and the concerns are more to do with local tides and weather and topography than anything to do with climate change. Cost will still be the primary concern, beachfront property is not cheap. The local issues dwarf climate change to the point that it likely doesn't even feature in your final decision, if you're being logical and not emotional.

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In my work with climate data, scientists in my cohort are instructing caution that many (linear) models are incorrect, and those are the figures you quote (1cm/year sea-level rise). However, not only have past sea-level rise projections been incorrectly low(1), but tropical storms/hurricanes have become measurably more frequent, more powerful, and slower(2), which also causes increased flooding. So, even if your beachfront property is not at increased risk from sea level rise, there is an increased risk of flooding and storm-surge exposure (in some places).

When I was attempting to establish historical storm trends for the Florida Keys in the early 18th century (for an archaeological study), one colleague suggested I not use post-2004 data, because the warming of the oceans was skewing everything from mean wind directions to the number of hurricanes to the current patterns. The costs associated with beachfront property are also rising, due to the insurance industry's discomfort with the risks and the additional maintenance costs(3). Even the US's National Flood Insurance Program is increasing the charges of its subsidized coastal insurance products(4), because private industry deems many coastal properties uninsurable.

So, I gotta ask: On what data are you basing your opinions?

1) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12808-z 2) https://www.theguardian.com/weather/ng-interactive/2018/sep/... 3) https://www.allpropertymanagement.com/blog/post/what-climate... 4) https://www.gulfshoreinsurance.com/summary-of-nfip-program-c...

I'm looking at the same data as you, and agree with your points. It's possible sea level could rise faster, but even at worst case protections climate change probably doesn't make the top ten factors when considering a specific property.

If the property is so vulnerable to rising sea levels or storm surge, it is going to be vulnerable with and without climate change. Climate change itself doesn't seem to change the calculus much.

In financial markets, expectations of future gain and loss impacts pricing today.

In exactly the same manner expectations that the future value of real estate may be impacted by climate change should be reflected in the price today. Even if the house I buy today does not flood in 20 years (my lifetime), in 20 years I will have to sell to someone who will have an investment horizon of 40 years from today (my 20 years, plus their hypothetical 20 years). Since that person may demand a lower price from me in 20 years, I should factor that into the price I pay today, since it effects my returns.

As a real example, I factored in expected flood insurance pricing rises on some riverfront property I purchased recently in Australia. The insurance price increases are driven by industry and government modelling to reflect tropical storm intensity and frequency and an increased risk that storm surges overlap high tides. Sea level rises contribute to the risk, but not in a meaningful level.

The end result was that my total cost of ownership increased by single digit %. I reduced my bid price accordingly to meet my % return requirement from the investment.

To put it concretely - my future expectation of increased climate-driven risk reduced the value of the asset to me.

Your confidence is misplaced, and your condescension is irksome.

Your confidence is misplaced. For example, improving the reliability of measurement indicates storms are in fact getting stronger. https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/11/05/1912277116

That's in terms of damage, not strength. Huge difference, depending on what we build and where. Although I'm not denying storms are getting stronger, it's slowly, just like sea level rise.

I wouldn't buy waterfront property in Florida, but mostly for the problems inherit with doing that today, not because of future climate change.

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