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I believe the UK estimates were based on the damage required before complete societal breakdown happens rather than simple headcount of immediate casualties. The UK government always was rather realistic about what would happen in the event of a 'general war', even if they didn't make that information widely known.

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Speaking of the effects of a nuclear weapon on London, here is an excellent BBC documentary from the early 1980s on the subject:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9GJttnC8PoA

In best British tradition it does even manage a bit of exceedingly dark humour.

Also Threads, from the same era, incredibly bleak depiction of British society in the aftermath of a nuclear attack.

https://youtu.be/vgT4Y30DkaA

(For those who haven't seen it, it is grim, but gripping.)

The director, Mick Jackson, later made Threads [1], which is one of the bleakest, most depressing films ever made. Highly recommended, though not for the easily disturbed. It's filmed like a documentary, not too different from A Guide To Armageddon.

He also made Connections [2] with James Burke, which is a fantastic documentary series about the history of science.

(His later, very commercial Hollywood work is less interesting, though Steve Martin's L.A. Story is great.)

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Threads

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connections_(TV_series)

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