Hacker News Reader

> both nearly went bankrupt, and both were eventually acquired

Nitpick: in Bombardier's case at least, these were separate events. The acquisition wasn't to deal with bankruptcy (they got a Canadian government bailout for that), but rather to gain access to Airbus's US manufacturing facilities to avoid import tariffs on US deliveries, which became necessary following a Boeing anti-dumping complaint that would have made the C-Series prohibitively expensive to US carriers.

My recollection is that Bombardier made (rejected) overtures in Boeing's direction before the trade spat. In either case BBD has gotten out of the commercial aircraft business completely, in large part due to the cost of developing the C-series.

Sukhoi and Comac are still hugely dependent on the west to build these planes. Avionics and engines especially.

Boeing and Airbus don’t build their own engines. I don’t expect COMAC to try that in their first rodeo.

The metallurgy required to build a modern turbofan engine is incredibly exotic — outside of France, England, and the US it's simply not there.

If you’re betting on metallurgy to be the barrier to keep western technological advantage alive I think you’re in for a surprise.

Comac abandoned carbon fiber for the wings in favor of aluminum.

So they have gone back to using the material used to build every other narrow body plane on the market in this size category. I admit, a new design should use carbon fiber, but given that no one else is yet...

Sure they do. Network effects are huge with airliners. If your Embraer breaks down away from your maintenance base chances are you can buy / borrow parts from another airline. If you're the only one around flying, you're entirely reliant on the manufacturer — and Comac doesn't have any sort of international support network.

First off, airlines have purchased a ton of E175 family aircraft.

Second off, while a large international distribution is important, you don’t need to compete in the wide body market to get it.

Third off, COMAC can focus on the Chinese market to start and take it region at a time slowly expanding across Asia. From there South Asia and SEA is easy and both are big markets, Russia would welcome it with open arms and then they can take a whack at the middle eastern market and also be competitive anywhere Airbus and Boeing aren’t really playing that hard anyway. (Africa, etc.) All this well before getting around to Europe or North America.

If Boeing can deliver on a MAX replacement it's doubtful that Comac will move the needle much in the next 10-15 years.

Let’s see Boeing deliver the MAX again first.

I think it would be easy to win a bet that COMAC delivers C919 to commercial airline customers before Boeing delivers a new narrow body design to replace the 737 family.

If you’re betting on metallurgy to be the barrier to keep western technological advantage alive I think you’re in for a surprise.

It's worked out well for the past 70 or so years. Industrial espionage can only go so far, that's more or less why the Russians dominate the rocket market.

So they have gone back to using the material used to build every other narrow body plane on the market in this size category. I admit, a new design should use carbon fiber, but given that no one else is yet...

The MC21 and C-series use carbon fiber wings and the MC21 also uses a CF wing box. Comac is targeting planes from 20-30 years ago. Even if it were perfectly reliable, it's nowhere near competitive with what's on the market now. If that extra few percent of fuel burn weren't important there'd be no market for the NEO or MAX.

First off, airlines have purchased a ton of E175 family aircraft.

That's the entire point. Without that scale support becomes that much more difficult and expensive.

Third off, COMAC can focus on the Chinese market to start and take it region at a time slowly expanding across Asia.

Yeah they've tried. The ARJ went over like a lead balloon. The domestic airlines haven't warmed up to Comac, and it's highly unlikely the C919 will move the needle much.

From there South Asia and SEA is easy and both are big markets

With a strong anti-Chinese sentiment (Malaysia, Vietnam). Perhaps more importantly SEA sees a lot of short-range widebody service which the C919 doesn't help with.

Russia would welcome it with open arms

Russia would welcome a direct competitor to its homegrown offerings? That seems unlikely for the C919 and unlikely even if we're talking about a hypothetical plane built in a Sino-Russian joint venture. Although why would they partner? Russian avionics aren't going to be accepted internationally, Russian engines are woefully inefficient. Comac struggled with the Ukranian wings on the ARJ. Maybe a carbon fuselage, but are the Russians anywhere near being able to do that?

and then they can take a whack at the middle eastern market

The shrinking middle east market? Emirates/flyDubai (who's got both Airbus and Boeing wrapped around their fingers is scaling back their growth (to put it delicately).

and also be competitive anywhere Airbus and Boeing aren’t really playing that hard anyway. (Africa, etc.)

How welcoming will Africa be as they slowly come to terms with how screwed they are by the Belt & Road initiative? Sure, maybe CCP applies pressure to make sales. That's not going to translate to any sort of European or American success though.

Let’s see Boeing deliver the MAX again first.

I suspect that's not going to happen.

I think it would be easy to win a bet that COMAC delivers C919 to commercial airline customers before Boeing delivers a new narrow body design to replace the 737 family.

Boeing began working on a 737 replacement before the MAX program was begun, meanwhile Comac pushed the EIS target for the C919 back to 2022. As Aviation Week pointed out last year the C919 needs about 33 hours per month of flight testing for a 2021 EIS, in practice they're seeing about 5 hours per month. So, maybe.

The C-Series is using carbon wings, and an absolute fuckton of carbon fiber everywhere. I've seen tech that goes into their carbon fiber parts and geometries, it's incredibly impressive, and I'm confident Bombardier more or less got it down.

It’s seemingly an excellent aircraft so far but it is not in the same size class as the C919, B737 or A320. In that market carbon fiber hasn't really hit yet. It clearly will in the next generation since the size class down (this market) and size class up (787, etc) both are carbon fiber designs. But the 737/320/919 size class isn’t there yet.

They're all (C-Series/A220, C919, 737, A320) roughly the same size, but the C919 is antiquated and struggles to compete with the NG and CEO. Meanwhile the C-Series sets the benchmark. Even so, the C-Series was extraordinarily difficult to sell until Airbus stepped in. Comac, with dramatically less experience than Bombardier, will have an even more difficult time trying to unload the C919 (outside of China).

The C919 is specced out at 168 people in a one class layout with an overall length of 38.9 meters, the CS300 seats 160 with an overall length of 38.7 meteres. That puts both between the 737-700 and 737-800 (or A319 and A320) in capacity. Range-wise the CS300 and CEO do well over 6,000 km. The C919? Even with current generation turbofans it can only do 4,000-5,500 km. The NG slots in between (but closer to the C919).

The C919 is at least a generation behind the C-Series and NEO and is not a threat to either Boeing or Airbus. Hell, Comac doesn't even have a western cockpit for the C919 where Bombardier was toying with a stretch of the C-Series.

I expect Comac to do a much better job on supply chain support than Sukhoi did. Russia in general has always been troublesome for parts supplies for its exported equipment, whereas China has a much more consumer-friendly culture and is likely to invest heavily in making the C919 a success there.

The bigger issues I expect for the C919 will be fuel-efficiency, and trust that it is a safe plane. The fact that they're building it from scratch when the main competitors are using refreshed old designs of the 737 and A320 might help it achieve competitive fuel-efficiency, but it remains to be seen. Safety trust will be hard to make up, but a possible pathway would be to have Chinese airliners and cargo companies use it first to establish a track record free of major accidents before getting sales to international airliners.

I expect Comac to do a much better job on supply chain support than Sukhoi did. Russia in general has always been troublesome for parts supplies for its exported equipment, whereas China has a much more consumer-friendly culture and is likely to invest heavily in making the C919 a success there.

I wasn't aware that China had built much of a reputation for international customer support.

The fact that they're building it from scratch when the main competitors are using refreshed old designs of the 737 and A320 might help it achieve competitive fuel-efficiency, but it remains to be seen

There's not much to see. The C-series is the one to beat and so far the assuredly optimistic, published specs (per Wikipedia) for the C919 don't come close to the CS300.

The difference here is that China has a rich (and growing) internal market.

Yep! Which means it doesn’t even have to be better to win orders. It just has to be vaguely sufficient. Which is legitimately a tall order. But!

Let’s also remember there’s a government entirely willing to subsidize the growth of a native product. Russia already has an 80 year history of taking wildly diverse and frankly oddball aircraft designs and turning them into things that actually fly. Anyone who thinks that them partnering with a Chinese company can’t build a widebody isn’t paying attention. Who knows if it’ll be any good, it may not be competitive. But will they be able to make something that flies?

I’d happily bet on it.

Russia already has an 80 year history of taking wildly diverse and frankly oddball aircraft designs and turning them into things that actually fly. Anyone who thinks that them partnering with a Chinese company can’t build a widebody isn’t paying attention.

Well that's changing the goalposts just a bit. It's likely that the Chinese can churn out a widebody, but Comac couldn't even pull off a warmed over DC-9. They've got less experience than any of the Russian companies and it's pretty much a given at this point that they won't be successful.