this is not anything to do with Cold war -- it is natural state of survival. One thing East Europeans get and West Europeans are clueless is the Russian Expansionism.
The immediate prescription of half-wits is "Cold War".
I did not make the North European Plains flat.. do not blame me.
Russians will move their border as far as you allow them to. I know their mentality, for I am one, and I grew up in a town full of army and fleet people.
I saw many types like that, before I got out of the country. Those will keep bully you more and more to see where you set the line, and punch them back.
In their calculus, being punched back is not bad at all, if before that they were able to punch you "for free"
Russia's Crimean desire is Russia's desire for land and spoils of war. Nothing more nothing less.
Crimea just happened to be there with some historical justification with which they came months into the conflict. Russia was plainly unable to advance any much further beyond the line where Ukrainians were scared enough to fight them seriously.
Russophone sentiment? No, nonsense, otherwise they wouldn't be occupying Ukrainian majority regions, or allow ethnic Russians to be made hate crime victims in their own backyard (Armenia, Kazakhstan to some extend, and ethnic autonomies in Russia itself)
Their desire for Crimea is not much different from their desire from getting a cut of land on the Rheine, or french Riviera, or even your capitol hill if you allow them to.
- Europe destroyed the USSR without war.
- Putin gets more resistance protests in Russia because of common sanctions
- Gazprom can't sell with profit within Russia, they need Europe
- Russia invests a lot of percentage of their GDP on military. But it's still nothing compared to Europe ( russia vs europe military spend: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=russia+vs+europe+milit... ). Remember, Europe isn't even spending 2%
- Without Ukraine, Russia can't even use their naval fleet. That's why they are being aggressive. The sanctions of being aggressive are hurting them, but cutting off oil to Europe would hurt them a lot more.
- Europe has never been so close to Moscow. They are more scared than you imagine
- Russia has way more borders to defend than any other country. That's why they are willing to get run over by China. Their relationship will fail sooner or later. China doesn't invest in Russia despite longtime promises. Their relationship will hold untill Putin realizes there is not much to gain or till China doesn't need them anymore.
Russia needs China more ( because of borders ) than the other way around. China also wants more security at it's borders, but it's less of a requirement.
- Russia's and Turkeys relationship is also not that stable. It was because of one man that they talked again, by the use of a special Turkish expression that said: sorry, but not that sorry. Their relationship could hold untill one of both actually tries to improve relations with Europe, not happening soon though.
If Europe would want to hurt Russia, they only need to heavily subsidize renewable resources, that would hurt max. 5% of Russia's GDP. No war required and don't bite the hand that feeds you ;)
Russia is still 100% capable to just put reservists into t55s and send them in the general direction of Europe. The only two real option to stall them for Nato will be to redeploy US forces to Europe or use French nukes.
Make 144,5 million Russians even more unhappy?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-a-big-shift-russians-take-to... - dated: December 2019.
What will the army / Putin do against much higher protests, if they continue to threat and receive more economic sanctions? This is why the USSR, at it's peak in 1980 x 5 of current Russia, fell without a war.
What good has Russia's gigantic military done? I only see failures. It seems that history hasn't been a good teacher. So, please learn some history: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Japanese_War#Effects_on_...
PS. Always welcome to adjust my opinion with facts.
Do they care when they talk of making populace "eat grass?" And I think they wouldn't even mind doing that and losing for as long as they "mess up your lawn"
From tiny pieces of what gets leaked, Putin hoped for nothing less than complete victory in both Georgia and Ukraine, and in both times it demonstrated that his generals were comically incompetent, causing lots of discontent in the military. Nevertheless, I think he still came out quite happy with just scaring the West away from those two countries, and messing up any prospect for a brighter future for them.
None of them were actually part of the EU. Although i would have wished Ukraine would have been better off without Russia ( and more democracy). It's not that easy to make an objective opinion, Russia had way more to loose than any of us + 65% Russians in the country would have made it possible to make a democratic decision ( in theory)
Georgia, i'm not aware of that actually. It's seems to me that both were caused by oil for Russia. My statement about subsidizing renewable energy against Russia has only been proven right.
If they were afraid of sanctions (which, even at this level are a complete joke,) they wouldn't be doing military adventures which would set them as a target for them.
> It's not that easy to make an objective opinion, Russia had way more to loose than any of us + 65% Russians in the country would have made it possible to make a democratic decision ( in theory)
This sound to me as a Russian a complete nonsense. An average Russian couldn't have hated Russia more for what it is, let alone opting to jump into the "warm embrace of the fatherland" once they got out.
For Russians, Russians who ended up with Ukrainian, Baltic states, or even a some joke Central Asian passport after the collapse of the Union are seen as somebody very lucky.
And the talk of ethnic Russians in the West, let alone US and Canada ever thinking of returning to Russia is a complete joke. Sorry, but you read to much Pravda, I'm afraid. I can't get other words for that.
I think you grossly underestimate the impact that heavy sanctions could have on the daily lives of Russians. The sanctions were NOT targetting the Russian people, but at making the lives of the responsibles less comfortable ( eg. the leaders/rich people).
And while Russia likes to publicly partner with China, they seem to forget that China literally does nothing for them (economically).
Edit ( since you adjusted your post):
Source:
https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/coun... ( trade )
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Crimea ( population of Crimea)
> This sound to me as a Russian a complete nonsense. An average Russian couldn't have hated Russia more for what it is, let alone opting to jump into the "warm embrace of the fatherland" once they got out.
I've only mentioned the spoken language in Crimea, not about the sentiment. Do not change my words, none of your last assumptions are correct and i don't even know Pravda ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Edit 2: I reread my comment, i did add "in theory" there, as I did not know much about the exact situation. I do agree, it could have been more clear.
But i did not say that they wanted to join Russia. I suggested ( or meant to) that there was a chance and that i did not know about the sentiment there.