Comment by igravious | Hacker News Reader

Comment by igravious | Hacker News Reader

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> Russia may attempt to assert itself to a greater extent in the next few decades, possibly going so far as to annex a Baltic country or two.

This is in the book that forecasts that Japan will attack the US in 2050 except that it'll be all space-borne battlestars and lasers and hypersonic weapons. Among other preposterous scenarios. Riiiight.

> It is advantageous to them to have Western Europe dependent on its oil and natural gas supplies.

Loaded language. Don't you think Western Europe has thought of this? And hey, if Russia turns off the tap they turn off their revenue stream. Besides, Europe, like the US, keeps strategic fossil fuel reserves.

> The United States' main geopolitical imperative is to maintain global hegemony.

> Not saying this is a good or bad thing. Depends on your perspective and what country you live in.

Seems to me that if the US keeps sanctioning foes and allies alike every country bar the US will consider this a bad thing.

It's really not so far-fetched to think Russia would annex a Baltic state sometime in the future. They've shown they have the capability and political will to annex similarly prepared countries' territories.

It all boils down to what they believe NATO's response would be.

> think Russia would annex a Baltic state

Baltics and Crimea are not comparable. - Crimea has Russia's only warm water port and would never be given up - Russia already has Baltic access (Kaliningrad and StPetersburg) - Crimea has been majority ethnic Russian for centuries and welcomes Russia - Baltics hate Russia

In summary, there is absolutely no logical reason Russia would annex Baltic state.

However, there are plenty reasons why non-Russian interests always repeat this narrative.

Russia doesn't need Baltic states. Their ports lost their value and the population is dying from poverty, drug addiction and alcoholism (fertility rate in Baltic states under EU is significantly lower compared to soviet times).

Why would Russia need several bankrupt dying states? To feed and develop them like in Soviet times getting nothing but hatred in response? Ditto for Ukraine BTW.

For a start Russia already has a Baltic state: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaliningrad_Oblast and, not only that, has access to the Baltic itself. So there's zero geopolitical strategic advantage.

Anywhere that Russia has "annexed" has had a majority ethnic Russian population and historical ties to Russia. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are not majority ethnic Russian, do not speak Russian, and are part of the EU (and NATO) so they're clearly not aligned geopolitically with Russia and it would cause major regional ramifications, undoubtedly triggering a war with NATO, and/or the EU (both nuclear entities). It would be wholly unprecedented in modern times.

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