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Figure 4 in the images from this tweet[1] (taken from the same paper above, page 8) show the effect of a 99% reduction in travel, over 65% of people in cities across China will become infected.

[1] https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1220919589623803905

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The guy needs to Chill T F O. R0 of measles is like 12-18.

And with the city-wide quarantine people should be modelling 99.99% reductions in travel not 99%.

> Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding (Eric Ding) is a health economist, epidemiologist, and nutrition scientist at the Harvard Chan School of Public Health, and an expert advisor to the World Health Organization.

I'm not usually one for relying heavily on authority, but this guy[1] is likely to know when the R0 number looks very, very bad.

[1] https://scholar.harvard.edu/ericding/home

Literally thousands of other people have the same qualifications as him and are also not freaking out over Twitter. I'd say the data leans more heavily in the other direction.

> As a Web of Science Highly Cited Researcher, He was ranked in 2018 as among the Top 1% of all scientists worldwide.

Let's cut that down to hundreds.

If 1% of all (medical) scientists is 500 then that means there are 50k (medical) scientists in the whole world. With some basic web searching, that would appear to be an underestimate; "thousands" would be a better estimate.

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