> It's about statistics - the longer you smoke and the more you smoke, the more likely you will be to get cancer.
Exactly, a simple metric used is the "pack year"[0] which is a way to represent overall exposure.
My mother died of lung cancer which sent me down many a rabbit hole, and I don't really understand what is surprising in the linked article. It's been known that risk of cancer decreases after one stops smoking, even if it never recedes to baseline (while asymptotically approaching it, basically). You have damaged cells which might become carcinogenic, or they might not, but those cells can also just die and be replaced by healthy cells.
The more you've smoked, though, the more damaged cells you've caused, so the more land mines you've got floating around your body.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pack-year