Comment by whacked_new | Hacker News Reader

Comment by whacked_new | Hacker News Reader

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Dude, I got modded down and I'm not complaining. The math is true and I'd be an idiot to disagree. However, with all due respect, you are missing something fundamental. If all we need is an absolute number of smart people, there have been plenty over the past millenia, and humans should be crazily more advanced than now.

If you want to talk about China, sure. From my limited understanding, China was an innovation center in the Tang dynasty. What about the Liao dynasty? I can't say the same. It's safe to say that the Chinese population only increased after a prosperous dynasty, so math-wise, the number of smart people increased too, but not so for innovation. There are obviously other factors at work.

I will not be so bold to claim that I have all the answers, but cultural climate is definitely important, and this is the basis of my comment. Japan has roughly half the population of USA and on par if not superior in communications technology. Why am I not surprised they didn't come out with a superior search engine? Online auctioning? Why am I not surprised that China's largest student social network started as a exact copy of facebook? Adoption of new web technologies is still slow. Because new ideas are still imported.

All of the points you just made are true. They are correct.

I'm trying to make another point-- its very arrogant to assume that because this is the situation now, that this will always be the situation.

America used to be the manufacturer that supplied the world. That is no longer the case, and even 30 years ago if someone said that we would have a 100 billion dollar trade deficit with china come 2010, virtually nobody would believe you. IF a major public figure said that, then the newspapers would be full of editorials smugly decrying his foolishness.

I think its in error to assume that there is something fundamental about the US (and especially about one particular US city) that gives it superiority in the area of innovation. Yes, culture helps, but the whole of america has the american culture, not just san francisco.

And many countries in the world are starting to get capitalism-- this is no longer the exclusive domain of america.

So, I submit that the future great centers of technological boom are going to be in asia, possibly the middle east, and possible former eastern europe.

The end of the Tang dynasty in america happened about 20 years ago, and we are well into the Liao-- it takes time for the effect to be readily apparent to everyone.

But the cultural revolution has happened and we lost. America is descendant. (China may not be ascendant in anything other than manufacturing- they are still a strong regime and their government has not losened its grip yet.)

Increasingly, innovation will happen outside of the US. This is already the case with consumer electronics.

Software is only 10 or 20 years away.

Sure. I'm not challenging you here nor am I claiming oxymorons like the status quo will persist.

The problem is that most people can't wait 10 years. Your skillset today may well be useless by then. You react to current trends, and set sail when winds are favorable. If the favorable winds are elsewhere, you move. Waiting is only an option when you can outlive the competition. For small startups, not an option. If you have money, hell, you don't care about winds, you make the wind.

And right now the winds are not favorable for these startups, but because the winds were in that direction 10 years ago, everyone's convinced that's the only direction the winds blow.

Look at the vitreol I've gotten for pointing out that in fact the winds have changed... people don't want to believe it.

10 years from now, when the US is no longer the dominant place for innovation--- the major growth in innovation elsewhere will have already occured. One would have missed the trend if they waited.

Plus, small startups should not waste money using the old models- they are the ones who can least afford it.

The really cool startups-- right now-- are relocating to former eastern republics. They are saving a lot of money and leveraging the fact that geography does not matter.

But all you'll here in this forum is "You must move to the bay area". Seattle-- not acceptable, even though its the third best place in the US for funding...

Its a totally narrow minded viewpoint, and the winds shifted. The winds shifted in 2000.

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