An adversary with lots of intercepts could certainly figure it out. But otherwise, how would anyone know?
And at least, it protects you from malicious guards.
Also, your point about violating a residential ISP's ToS is troubling. Because nobody in their right mind ought to be running any sort of Tor relay from home. It's a ~sure way to get your IP address on many blocklists.
And about getting notices, that only happens for exit relays. Not for guards and middle relays.
Edit: Actually, I meant running your own unpublished bridge, not guard. In the bridge torrc:
ExitRelay 0
BridgeRelay 1
BridgeDistribution none
PublishServerDescriptor 0
And in the client torrc: UseBridges 1
UpdateBridgesFromAuthority 0
Bridge [transport] IP:ORPort [fingerprint]