Stop spreading FUD. There have been a couple hundred deaths.
Even if the numbers have been minimized, compare this to the 40'000 deaths due to the flu in the US every year ...
Even if the numbers have been minimized, compare this to the 40'000 deaths due to the flu in the US every year ...
More people have died from this virus in the past 24 hours than all of 2019 and the 3 weeks in January prior to the 25th, combined. Now do you see why there is reason for alarm? There were only 1320 confirmed cases just over a week and a half ago, globally. Now the number has increased by 2604 in the past day!
[1] https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati...
[2] https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati...
[3] https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati...
Emergency braking of Chinese commerce will hit the global economy hard, no matter how low the death rate is believed to be, because fatalities aren't the driver of the economic impact.
My worry would be the risk of being stuck somewhere when my planned transport is cancelled rather than being infected and dying.
300 deaths out of over a billion people is nothing.
According to this link there was 14451 cases in China, even if statistically insignificant (something like 0.001%) it's a bit much for my taste, especially if we consider that the Chinese authorities could have massively downplayed the number of infected persons.
> R-naught is the average number of people infected from one other person, for example, Ebola has an r-naught of two, so on average, a person who has Ebola will pass it on to two other people.
See “Limitations of R₀” too: when solely derived from math models, “values [of R₀] should be used with caution” and “this severely limits its usefulness.”.
As I understand, take it for what it is: model not gospel.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number
as you said, the normal flu is plenty deadly. even if we assumed that variable was break-even, what matters now is the rate of infection transmission and growth.
right now it is still exponential. we can only hope for the bend in a sigmoid curve to come soon, but we haven't seen it yet.
now on top of the fact that it is still exponential is the greatest crackdown on freedom of movement we've ever seen. a side affect of china's massive population is basically anything new they do becomes the biggest X we've ever seen. dozens of cities that are tens of times larger than most american cities on various levels of lockdown/quarantine. this is already historic.
I don't think it's the right metric to focus either.
The survivability rate once infected is probably the most important.
I believe that medias business model (pay per click) force them to jump on and exaggerate any threat so as to get more views. It's not the first time and sadly not the last that we see such a thing.
I could be wrong but I don't think it's the end of the world ;-)
your twice now trying to catastophize that into a deathtoll or "the end of the world" constitutes either a double-mis-reading or an active attempt at trolling. you want to blame the media, but you are the person introducing the false extremes to this conversation.
people don't have to die from a disease to not want to get it.
If one infected person infects, on average, less than one other person, the disease will dwindle and die. It could kill 100% of infected people, but it would kill only a small and decreasing number over time.
Conversely, an infectious disease, where one infected person will infect three others on average, will spread quickly. Even if this disease has a more modest fatality rate, suppose it kills only 5% of infected, it could wind up killing tens of millions, if not more.
In this case, I think the mainstream media is actually understating the danger, by comparing it to the flu to suggest it's not so bad, pointing out how SARS was worse, or claiming that concerns over nCoV are inspired by xenophobia. The academic and medical sources I've been reading tell of high infectivity rates, that it's contagious while asymptomatic, that China is underreporting infections and death, and so on.
You're right that this is probably not the end of the world. This is probably not going to be a major epidemic like The Spanish Flu. However, most potential risks don't materialize. If, for any potential risk, you assume it won't happen, you'll usually be right, but, because of the huge downside of being wrong, that's not a great pattern to follow.
Except worry, there's nothing I can do to protect myself now.
I will really worry if and when there will be a couple hundred deaths in 2 or 3 cities in my country (if i was living in China I would be worried).
Before that it's just one more sad news that I try to not think too much about or I would live in a constant state of gloom and doom.
When you should take actions to mitigate risks depends on where you are and what resources you have available and what else you are dealing with. Where I am, we have had one case of the virus and I expect we have an above average amount of people recently in China.
I find it quite comforting to read about the virus so I can understand it and take steps to mitigate what I think are the likely risks. Reading the advice of medical experts has helped me take what I hope are sensible precautions and develop a good strategy for what to do if something bad happens with my family.
I have gathered enough food for my household to eat for a month, some water, stocked our medicine cabinet with things that are useful for dealing with the symptoms of the virus, a couple boxes of N95 surgical masks, and, maybe a bit more out there - I've got a pulse oximeter and a stethoscope and I've practiced listening to normal lung sounds and made sure I can use the oximeter.
If the virus sets in where I am, my household will shelter in place and stay inside. If we get sick we will stay home, since I know hospitals can't do more than treat the symptoms and going to hospitals will expose you to other pathogens including pneumonia which seems to kill many people with the virus. I will use the oximeter to detect a drop in blood oxygen of any sick person which is an indicator of pneumonia as a signal that home care is insufficient and then we'll strap on our masks and safety goggles and go to the hospital.
If the viruses doesn't materialize then we'll eat the food in the stockpile and I'll have spent only a small sum on things that aren't likely to be useful.
1. High infection rate + High survivability
2. High infection rate + Low survivability
3. Low infection rate + High survivability
4. Low infection rate + Low survivability
#2 would be disastrous, but we're not there now, and hopefully won't.