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Comment by microcolonel | Hacker News Reader

Daily reminder that the confirmed cases are limited by the capacity to confirm cases, not by the actual contagion.

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The estimate of likely infected people in China was somewhere between 37k and 130k as of January 25, and it is expected that the number of infected people will double roughly every six days, so assuming there has been no appreciable change to the pattern of spread, we can maybe back-of-the-napkin that somewhere around 75,000-280,000 people are probably infected.

This website provides daily updates on the spread of the virus: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

Crucially, this lists the confirmed cases, different from the actual cases.

P.S. for those who are clearly disagreeing with me here, I would love to hear what you have to say, rather than just having my text become slightly grey.

Here's the WHO map, which I find a bit more legible.

http://who.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/c88...

The WHO map is very slow and does not list cases outside of China reliably in either the tables or the map, it also has functional errors in the source table which cause it to lack labels on some datapoints.

The Johns Hopkins map can be made more similar by switching to the terrain map layer with the icon in the upper right hand corner of the map widget.

Interesting, I'd not played with ArcGIS that much. The most legible option I found was the "light grey canvas" map. Personally I find all the extra detail on these map layers unwanted and distracting for a chloropleth.

This is what I've come up with from scraping the JHU aggregation:

https://i.imgur.com/jptdqzs.png

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