Then again. Does Joe Sixpack benefit from being more productive? After all, usually they aren't paid more when they do more work, so there isn't that much incentive...
That's one of the things I enjoy most as a programmer is having the tools to easily monitor my output (LOC per day or something) but also the power to improve or create better tools.
My initial reaction to this was: of course! Doesn't everyone benefit from spending less time doing repetitive, thoughtless tasks at work? (even if they don't use the extra time to produce more output for their employer?) But you're right: the evidence is pretty overwhelming that either this isn't true, or it's true but most people don't care or realize it.
Solving the problem of people never learning "one thing" to save hundreds of wasted hours over the years is akin to solving the obesity problem in America. Everybody that is obese knows already that obesity is a health problem, but it takes that little bit of effort to start making it pay off, and nobody has the time/desire to put in that little bit of effort. Meanwhile massive societal forces conspire to both make people overeat and stay inactive, just as they keep them from taking the time to learn new things about their software and work processes.
The reason I think culture and education can overcome these forces is because of another comparable societal problem: the campaign to end smoking actually has gotten a large percentage of Americans, especially youth, to get over that hump or even better never start at all. It took massive investment in public education and time for it to propagate through a generation. So, these are cultural problems: we have a failure to motivate people to explore new computer skills.
The recommendations in the papers aren't, contrary to what the blog post says, about CLI vs. GUI, but about what kind of information should be presented to the user.
And: If they these people have the endurance to stand countless hours of such repetitive tasks, they are more than able to take the challenges of steep learning curves.
That said: My approach always has been to try to teach people about some fundamentals instead of letting them walk calmly into their ui abysses. And usually, when people learn that you can do with a keystroke what took four clicks before, they want to know more.
On the other hand if you need to achieve a task whose outcome you won't rely on to reach other ends, like say buying airline tickets (ha), its probably better if you can offload the thinking to some other entity.
So, (in this paper), we're talking about planning versus relying on more external visual cues. Your WinZip versus tar example is apt, but it also introduces the issue of GUI versus CLI, which isn't addressed by the paper.