I have the coronavirus – So far, it isn't that bad
washingtonpost.com
washingtonpost.com
Once respirators run out, the fatality rate jumps from 2% to 5%.
We know that COVID-19 has a high mortality rate (and a high rate of requiring ICU care). "High" doesn't mean 50% or higher; it means high compared to influenza or high compared to the capacity the US health system is intended to handle.
This article shouldn't be reassuring. Read this line in particular:
If I were at home with similar symptoms, I probably would have gone to work as usual.
That should scare the fuck out of you.
What would be more constructive than being scared is to work positively to end this culture.
Edit: to be really explicit, staying at home for several days when you feel sick and even after you think you have recovered should continue, even after the fear of the Coronavirus dies down.
The fact that that viewpoint is representative of a broader cultural trend is genuinely terrifying, though. Even ignoring people who have to go to work in order to pay for food and housing (no legal requirement to offer paid sick leave!), there will be a very large group of people who believe it's virtuous to toughen up and go to work anyway, even if they feel like death incarnate.
Exactly. He and his wife felt fine when they left the ship after 16 days. Meanwhile, six passengers who had symptoms earlier are dead. The author could easily have his worst days ahead of him and this article does everyone a disservice.
And when the case load is higher than what the health care system is able to handle, mortality jumps to 2% or higher.
Something wrong with your numbers.
The GP's point stands, I think.
> It infected 500 million people around the world,[2] or about 27% of the then world population of between 1.8 and 1.9 billion, including people on isolated Pacific islands and in the Arctic. The death toll is estimated to have been 40 million to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million
50-100M of those die, for a fatality rate of at 10 to 20%, not the 2% referenced in OP.
It should also be said that the 1% rate for COVID-19 is probably too high because a lot of cases appear to be hardly symptomatic. The cruise ship had 3 deaths up until now, all over the age of 80.
Mortality is 100%...for the person that dies from it. And that 1% rate is so far, I hope we don't see what happens if 46 million people in USA get it and try going to the hospital.
3711 passengers and crew on board total. 709 tested positive for COVID-19. So sub 1% mortality for the infected. And that's in a population that's likely much older and less fit or healthy than the rest of us. And in pretty ideal conditions for the virus to spread (close quarters, shared living spaces etc).
Also there are a lot of people who are "recovered" and tested negative, but a few days later were testing positive again. Either the testing kits are testing for the wrong things or are defective in some way, or there is the possibility the disease is biphasal or/and retreats to a reservoir in the body.
Either way, I think any hope of containing and exterminating the virus is long gone. We will likely all get this eventually. The question is whether we can manage that process so that hospitals are not overrun by the people who need inpatient care.
But the most salient factor of the Diamond Princess is this: everyone did receive top-notch treatment, and no healthcare system was put under strain by treating the patients. That will be hard in the real world, as opposed to the petri dish case.
The key thing right now is slowing down the spread as much as possible, so the medical system doesn't end up overloaded.
It seems to me that we will all eventually get this virus. It's on all continents, it's infectious and hard to diagnose before it's spread. So the question is whether we can manage it so it hits slowly enough that everyone who needs inpatient care can get it. I wonder how tmit will look when it hits western countries in full. I hope its OK.
This is the part where the government really fell down. Tough on immigration, but oblivious to the need for containment when it really matters.
If they're 60, their risk is slightly higher than 3% because they're male and on the edge of two age groups.
Their previous state of health would be the biggest variable.
80+ years old 14.8%
70-79 years old 8.0%
60-69 years old 3.6%
50-59 years old 1.3%
40-49 years old 0.4%
This preliminary data from the Chinese officials maybe wildly high or low because dividing current deaths by current cases is invalid within an active event due to the two week incubation period. Additional math would be needed to estimate a range of total current unknown infections in order to make the percentages accurate.
What is known, is that like the flu or pneumonia, very old, males and unhealthy have elevated mortality rates.
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-720...
So 15% of 80+ year people dying of any cause is probably not far off normal dying rates (without the virus). Anyone know the age group stats of % of people dying of any "regular" causes?
Looks like 6% of 80-84 and 14% of 85+. Someone better at statistics than me could probably say what the relative and absolute risk increase is for contracting COVID-19 at those ages is.
Search for "all cause mortality by age" if you want to do some more research.
1: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se...
That wording seems ambiguous, from the dictionary:
favor - feel or show approval or preference for
While I can see how you could say that since children are spared, the disease "favors" them, that doesn't sound quite right. If I said "The serial killer favors young women", I think most people would assume that young women were his target.
Poor choice of words to put in the title. AIDS isn't that bad either...until it is.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/29/to-hell-and-ba...
--- CFR (males and females) ---
50-59 years old 1.3%
40-49 years old 0.4%
30-39 years old 0.2%
Male 2.8% Female 1.7%
These are averages across ages, and they maybe wildly inaccurate because of the on-going situation has unknowable data on those who are sick but won't seek help or those who will become sick before it's over.
Figure 24% higher if male, so roughly 0.5% (1/200) or 24% lower if female 0.3% (1/300) if female, and average health for both. Health condition makes it too unpredictable to guess further, but good health appears strongly correlated with good outcomes and vice-versa.
Sure, I probably won't die if I get it.
I'd rather not be laid up in the hospital (or at home even, really), missing work and other important events as I accrue a larger and larger financial burden because of the US's expensive health care. And that's not even considering the impact this could have to my elderly family and friends.
Given that top epidemiologists are predicting 40-70% of adults will be infected this year, that would mean roughly 35 to 62 million people would die this year.
I would consider that a harrowing experience.
[0] I assume you got them from here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se...
[1] https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-c...
If 40-70% of people will be infected this year and 35-62 million will die, that's 1-1.5% death rate. The average person will probably know a few people that die from it, but the average person probably knows hundreds of people. This is going to be similar to the number that die from car accidents or HIV, and neither of those have wrecked society. It's going to be sad, but probably won't change life as we know it, unless we let it.
Personally, I think we're all overreacting a bit, and the overreaction is what's going to cause the problems, not the disease. The Spanish flu caused problems, but that was ~10x deadlier than COVID-19. We all just need to worry less and be a little more proactive about visiting the doctor.
-3,000 other people including many who were on the cruise ship with this guy.
This makes me legitimately angry. If you are sick, please stay home, I don't care if you feel "well enough to work". Keep your viruses away from me and everyone else you work with. You're not getting any brownie points for "being a trooper", everyone is just going to be annoyed at you for getting them sick.
I know in general the users of this forum are generally loathe to accept government intervention, but the current mechanisms of American capitalism are antagonistic to public health and civil defense.
Possibly I've just hit the boss jackpot 11 times in a row, but I've never been punished for staying home when sick. When I've felt capable, I've worked from home when sick, but sometimes I haven't even done that.
Assumptions aside, the rest of the people you're endangering don't care what your boss thinks, so, maybe everyone should reevaluate their priorities. Bosses included.
It's kind of hard to pull bricks at the building site or sell groceries at the shop from your living room, you know, cause of the distance and all that.
Is a flu test run on the dead bodies?
I read about multiple people in the US who are not sure if they had coronavirus or not, but didn't go testing. Also it seems like flu is supposed until proven proven that a person has coronavirus.
But as people learn more they are getting better ideas on the disease progression. Every number has many assumptions built into it.
Seems like very little is known about how many people have had it and were either asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic. So the actual mortality rate is highly debated, without much real info. Not enough testing kits anywhere (in particular the USA and China) is making this difficult. Even with testing it's hard because and unknown number of people can just shrug it off.
But if you do go to the hospital and they are completely overwhelmed, treating people in hallways, etc the death rate is 10%. There were times in Wuhan where this was true.
If somewhat overwhelmed, able to treat, but not put on a full ventilator, but able to do supportive care (anti-virals, fluids, oxygen, etc) looks like the mortality rate (again for those that go to the hospital) is under 5%. Wuhan has been like this for some days now.
For those that go to the hospital where they aren't overwhelmed and you can get full supportive care up to and including a full ventilator the mortality rate, again for those that go to a hospital, is under 1%. This is seen in numerous countries that have very few cases.